Device & Drug Revenue Forecasting

While some companies develop their own detailed forecasts, many understand the value in obtaining an independent third-party point of view on the revenue potential for drugs in a therapeutic area. By utilizing our device and drug revenue forecasts, you will obtain an objective and unbiased projection of the commercial potential of those assets. This powerful information will change your perception or confirm what you already know, allowing you to move forward with a strategy.

Do You Need Forecasting?

The costs of developing new compounds and devices are steep. Before you invest your resources in an asset that may not provide the returns you anticipate, ensure you have the most robust market data and analysis. Our team can help you gain all the pertinent information and provide critical forecasting to inform your strategies.

How It Works

For each indication of each pipeline and marketed drug, inThought will develop a revenue forecast that includes historical data for the past three years and projects seven years in the future. Forecasts will be delivered in an editable Excel format and kept up to date for one year based on results, events, and competitive threat changes.

Our Forecasting Models

Models are developed for a given therapeutic area based on the addressable patient population. This allows for detailed assessment of a compound’s real or potential competitive landscape. Epidemiological considerations include estimates of disease incidence, prevalence, growth rates, and death rates. Models are developed separately for the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

Drug revenue models look seven years into the future and three years into the past.

Device revenue models project three to five years forward and three years back.
For developmental agents, the revenue forecast assumes the drug or device is approved. Risk adjusted valuations can be developed by multiplying the revenue potential—if approved—by the probability of approval as assessed by the inThought Approvability Index.

Do You Need Forecasting?

The costs of developing new compounds and devices are steep. Before you invest your resources in an asset that may not provide the returns you anticipate, ensure you have the most robust market data and analysis. Our team can help you gain all the pertinent information and provide critical forecasting to inform your strategies.

How It Works

For each indication of each pipeline and marketed drug, inThought will develop a revenue forecast that includes historical data for the past three years and projects seven years in the future. Forecasts will be delivered in an editable Excel format and kept up to date for one year based on results, events, and competitive threat changes.

Our Forecasting Models

Models are developed for a given therapeutic area based on the addressable patient population. This allows for detailed assessment of a compound’s real or potential competitive landscape. Epidemiological considerations include estimates of disease incidence, prevalence, growth rates, and death rates. Models are developed separately for the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

Drug revenue models look seven years into the future and three years into the past.

Device revenue models project three to five years forward and three years back.
For developmental agents, the revenue forecast assumes the drug or device is approved. Risk adjusted valuations can be developed by multiplying the revenue potential—if approved—by the probability of approval as assessed by the inThought Approvability Index.

Make Informed Decisions

inThought provides a range of pharmaceutical analysis and consulting services to help you make key business decisions with confidence. Get in touch today to learn more.

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